Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x087f…dcb5 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$282 (-9%) realized −$282 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$308
world 19% +$19
economics 17% +$4
crypto 10% −$3
culture 9% +$8
politics 9% −$5
tech 5% +$7
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 28 -17.7% -25.5% 43% 4% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 4% -18.2%
10% -32.6% 0% -26.0%
15% -39.2% 0% -33.2%
20% -45.1% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage256d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Devils vs. Capitals Mar 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $4 $0 -6%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 02 $200 +$4 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 28 $196 +$3 +2%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $179 +$11 +6%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 13 $178 +$3 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $17 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $163 +$7 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $181 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 20 $169 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 18 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 14 $175 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 06 $167 +$4 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 22 $149 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 17 $103 +$4 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $156 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 10 $149 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 58¢ $104 66d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? BUY Yes $1 80d
Devils vs. Capitals BUY Devils 46¢ $202 89d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $4 104d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $4 105d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $200 113d
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 142d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $179 148d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 91¢ $181 155d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 89¢ $178 157d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 159d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 160d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 96¢ $163 177d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $176 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $175 190d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $6 195d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 196d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $165 197d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $165 198d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? SELL Yes $1 199d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY Yes $2 201d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $166 202d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $167 204d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $1 205d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes $2 208d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 99¢ $169 209d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $169 210d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL Yes $4 211d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY Yes $6 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.01 · official $32.01 (match) · 59 history records