Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x087b…cdcf sports 1072 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate26%289W / 805L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$159
14 days−$217
30 days−$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$103
other 17% −$82
world 13% −$22
crypto 5% −$53
politics 5% −$9
finance 4% −$26
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -13.5% -21.7% 18% 10% -15.9%
≤30d 715 -8.3% -17.0% 24% 12% -13.9%
≤90d 1094 -5.3% -14.3% 26% 14% -12.7%
all 1094 -5.3% -14.3% 26% 14% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 14% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 9% -21.0%
15% -30.0% 6% -28.7%
20% -36.9% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses289 / 805
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1094 / 1072
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Jun 29 $1 −$2 -187%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 29 $2 −$5 -290%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEF Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 29 $1 −$3 -273%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 29 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $11 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $5 +$3 +49%
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -10%
Antonia Ruzic vs. Emma Raducanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 −$1 -22%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 28 $6 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $5 $0 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $9 −$1 -12%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $9 −$1 -16%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $5 $0 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $5 $0 -8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Jun 28 $5 $0 -9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Jun 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 28 $13 −$2 -12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $8 −$2 -21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$1 -5%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli Jun 28 $7 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 16m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $8 16m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $5 16m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $11 1h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 78¢ $8 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $5 2h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $11 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 80¢ $5 5h
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 5h
Antonia Ruzic vs. Emma Raducanu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Under 2.5 50¢ $4 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 50¢ $6 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $8 6h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 62¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $2 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $5 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $3 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 49¢ $6 8h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 44¢ $8 8h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $9 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 45¢ $5 8h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 73¢ $5 8h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 74¢ $5 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $8 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 79¢ $5 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $9 8h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $6 8h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 72¢ $5 8h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 75¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.83 · official $20.83 (match) · 3500 history records