Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
08 0x0879…2f3f crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$478 (+16%) realized +$575 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%32W / 31L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$210
other 28% −$136
sports 22% +$465
world 9% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 33 +44.4% +30.7% 48% 48% -24.7%
all 63 +26.9% +14.8% 51% 49% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 49% -5.0%
10% +3.8% 43% -14.1%
15% -6.2% 37% -22.4%
20% -15.4% 29% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$32 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$575
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses32 / 31
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage100d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $203 −$100 -49%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $120 −$85 -71%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $30 +$23 +76%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $100 +$127 +127%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $7 +$494 +7059%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 09 $40 +$111 +278%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $16 −$16 -97%
Will SS Lazio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Apr 04 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 26 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 26 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 26 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 26 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 26 $30 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 26 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 26 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $47 +$37 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$11 +55%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $30 +$29 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 16 $28 +$44 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 16 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$18 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 16 $30 +$12 +40%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $30 +$118 +395%
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 12 $24 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 40h
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 14d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 14d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 32d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 42d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 43d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 20¢ $98 43d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 62d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 64d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 11¢ $53 64d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $55 66d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 86¢ $227 67d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 67d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $35 67d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $120 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL Yes 50¢ $501 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $151 70d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 74d
Will SS Lazio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 75d
Will SS Lazio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 75d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 78d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 78d
Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $30 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $38 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $30 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.31 · official $128.31 (match) · 127 history records