Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x0878…7b50
weather · 613 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$1,100 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,106 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,570
Realized+$1,106
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses521 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions80
Markets (closed)533 / 613
History coverage10d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day350.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 80 History 533 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$576
14 days+$1,106
30 days+$1,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $841 $841 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $805 $799 −$6 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $460 $464 +$3 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $370 $373 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $307 $306 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $203 $205 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $167 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $152 $153 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 96¢ 93¢ $156 $151 −$5 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $136 $130 −$6 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on June 1 Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 14? Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 13? Jun 12 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 67°F or below on June 13? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $251 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 13 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $74 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $122 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $95 −$13 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $72 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $435 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $463 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 13 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 12 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 83°F or below on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on June 12? Jun 12 $245 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 12 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 12 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,098
crypto 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 10m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $34 10m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $16 11m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 30m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 30m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $152 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 77°F or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 453 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -8.6%
≤30d 533 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 2% -8.0%
≤90d 533 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 2% -8.0%
all 533 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover350.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 2% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 2% -16.8%
15% -25.2% 1% -24.8%
20% -32.5% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,569.56 · official $8,569.42 (match) · 3500 history records