Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x0873…09e8
other · 190 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$394 +100%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$168 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$209
Realized+$168
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses58 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions122
Markets (closed)103 / 190
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day405.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 122 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$163
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $47 +$16 (+50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+100%)
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+100%)
Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+100%)
Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Brianne K. Nadeau win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +124%
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $0 +$1 +123%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $0 +$1 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP Jun 10 $0 $0 +100%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $23 +$23 +100%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +200%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +151%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 10 $0 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 +600%
Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO? Jun 09 $0 $0 +200%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 09 $0 +$13 +213545%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +52%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $1 −$1 -70%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$3 +79%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? Jun 08 $3 +$9 +257%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$3 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +200%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +200%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +81%
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $0 +$1 +2855%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 07 $3 +$2 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$78
world 15% +$52
politics 15% −$9
crypto 10% +$12
tech 5% +$14
economics 3% +$7
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Melisa López Franzen be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minn SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Melisa López Franzen be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minn SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Zachary Parker win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Melisa López Franzen be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minn SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will Zachary Parker win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+90.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +126.2% +104.7% 64% 60% +45.1%
≤30d 103 +110.1% +90.1% 56% 53% +42.8%
≤90d 103 +110.1% +90.1% 56% 53% +42.8%
all 103 +110.1% +90.1% 56% 53% +42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover405.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +90.1% 53% +42.8%
10% ← realistic here +71.9% 50% +29.1%
15% +55.3% 50% +16.7%
20% +40.0% 48% +5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.80 · official $208.80 (match) · 3500 history records