Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0872…8cbf crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-42%) realized −$19 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$46
sports 31% −$21
other 18% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.0% -34.8% 25% 25% -72.5%
≤30d 4 -28.0% -34.8% 25% 25% -72.5%
≤90d 4 -28.0% -34.8% 25% 25% -72.5%
all 4 -28.0% -34.8% 25% 25% -72.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 25% -72.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 25% -75.1%
15% -46.8% 25% -77.5%
20% -52.0% 25% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)4 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Over 4¢ 2¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 +$13 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 42m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.54 · official $6.54 (match) · 51 history records