Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x086a…4d3f crypto 1497 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5,258 (-6%) realized −$44,146 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate67%1322W / 654L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42,530
7 days−$42,637
14 days−$42,409
30 days−$42,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 557 -86.0% -87.3% 12% 1% -80.1%
≤30d 822 -56.9% -61.0% 37% 2% -49.8%
≤90d 1976 -22.8% -30.2% 67% 4% -27.1%
all 1976 -22.8% -30.2% 67% 4% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 4% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 0% -34.1%
15% -42.9% 0% -40.5%
20% -48.5% 0% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$78 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$44,146
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1322 / 654
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1976 / 1497
History coverage77d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 71¢ 94¢ $66 $88 +$22 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 90¢ 6¢ $72 $4 −$68 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$187 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$67 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$52 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$71 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $190 −$379 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$76 -201%
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $196 −$392 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $156 −$314 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$46 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$44 -200%
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$147 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $144 −$288 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $180 −$361 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$74 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$29 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$54 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$22 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$211 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$83 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $88 −$175 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$22 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$35 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$75 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$172 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $122 −$245 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$75 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$108 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $209 −$418 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$21 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $183 −$365 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$127 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$80 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$162 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$40 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $110 −$219 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$28 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$18 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $68 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $73 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $73 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $72 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $55 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $74 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $73 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $73 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $74 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $74 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.54 · official $87.76 · 3500 history records