Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
08 0x0867…3023 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,677 (-8%) realized −$1,677 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 30L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$249est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$496
14 days−$454
30 days−$1,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$790
other 6% −$1,188
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.3% -8.4% 41% 41% -18.6%
≤30d 57 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 47% -18.5%
≤90d 57 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 47% -18.5%
all 57 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 47% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 47% -18.5%
10% -18.9% 47% -26.3%
15% -26.8% 42% -33.4%
20% -33.9% 32% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$337 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$249
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage25d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $305 −$198 -65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $197 +$169 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $83 −$65 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $113 −$5 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $132 +$30 +23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $70 +$60 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,103 −$1,085 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $633 +$471 +74%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $398 +$236 +59%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $228 +$170 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $817 −$800 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $199 +$846 +424%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $162 −$159 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 +$134 +88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $130 −$47 -36%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $24 +$52 +213%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$26 -52%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 09 $212 −$208 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $155 +$57 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 09 $263 −$260 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $183 +$236 +129%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $197 +$83 +42%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $124 −$122 -98%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $178 +$144 +81%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $137 +$41 +30%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $194 +$73 +38%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec May 30 $26 +$22 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $82 −$55 -68%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $178 −$175 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $98 +$177 +180%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $49 +$21 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $39 −$38 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $63 −$62 -98%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner May 28 $131 −$129 -99%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner May 28 $36 +$43 +118%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 25 $45 −$45 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $20 +$26 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 24 $3 +$5 +173%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner May 23 $972 −$962 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 23 $755 +$218 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1,993 −$1,993 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1,035 +$1,160 +112%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $477 −$472 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner SELL Game Master 18¢ $107 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 49¢ $305 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $197 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins $18 29h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $83 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $99 32h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 52¢ $107 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $113 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $163 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $132 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $70 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $52 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $77 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,103 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $1,105 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $633 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $634 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 62¢ $398 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $398 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $228 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $817 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $1,045 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $199 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $162 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 99¢ $286 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 52¢ $152 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $48 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records