Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0860…123b sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-19%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% $0
other 28% −$50
crypto 26% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 33% -25.3%
≤30d 42 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 33% -25.3%
≤90d 49 -15.5% -23.6% 43% 31% -25.5%
all 49 -15.5% -23.6% 43% 31% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 31% -25.5%
10% -30.9% 14% -32.6%
15% -37.6% 10% -39.1%
20% -43.7% 8% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage76d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$13 +52%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +54%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -86%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$11 +139%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $23 −$2 -8%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$4 +25%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $9 −$4 -41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 03 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 01 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 01 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $5 55m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 56m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 0¢ $0 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 9¢ $1 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 86¢ $5 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $5 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $4 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $2 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $2 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 36¢ $5 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $5 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $19 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 41¢ $8 11h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $2 11h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $5 11h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 55¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.88 (match) · 184 history records