Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0860…7955 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$604 (-23%) realized −$604 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$188
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$223
other 31% −$362
culture 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.6% +12.7% 40% 40% -46.2%
≤30d 5 +24.6% +12.7% 40% 40% -46.2%
≤90d 9 -7.6% -16.4% 33% 33% -47.1%
all 42 -18.4% -26.2% 36% 36% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 36% -31.6%
10% -33.2% 36% -38.1%
15% -39.7% 36% -44.1%
20% -45.6% 29% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$50 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$604
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage291d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 −$4 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 21 $25 +$71 +285%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Apr 10 $50 +$54 +108%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $50 +$56 +112%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jan 11 $20 +$16 +80%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Dec 02 $25 +$49 +194%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Dec 02 $25 +$61 +245%
Lions vs. Eagles Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. Rams Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Packers vs. Giants Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$56 +56%
Lakers vs. Hawks Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Cowboys vs. Jets Oct 12 $50 +$52 +104%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Dolphins vs. Panthers Oct 05 $60 $0 -0%
Packers vs. Cowboys Sep 29 $71 +$29 +41%
Bears vs. Raiders Sep 29 $50 +$59 +117%
Colts vs. Rams Sep 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Ravens vs. Chiefs Sep 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Jaguars vs. 49ers Sep 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Broncos vs. Chargers Sep 28 $50 +$36 +72%
Steelers vs. Patriots Sep 28 $50 +$48 +96%
Rams vs. Eagles Sep 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Falcons vs. Panthers Sep 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Cowboys vs. Bears Sep 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Sep 14 $88 −$24 -28%
Giants vs. Cowboys Sep 14 $150 +$89 +59%
Jaguars vs. Bengals Sep 14 $100 −$46 -46%
Bengals vs. Browns Sep 07 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 75¢ $67 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $71 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 73¢ $67 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $70 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $71 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $252 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $10 75d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $25 75d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 26¢ $25 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 75d
Patriots vs. Broncos SELL Patriots 100¢ $106 149d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 34¢ $50 149d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Patriots 47¢ $50 150d
Bills vs. Jaguars BUY Bills 48¢ $50 164d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Cowboys 21¢ $50 201d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Cowboys 40¢ $25 201d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 204d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 204d
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 204d
Eagles vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 29¢ $25 213d
Colts vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 34¢ $25 213d
Lions vs. Eagles BUY Lions 43¢ $20 220d
Seahawks vs. Rams BUY Seahawks 38¢ $20 220d
Packers vs. Giants BUY Giants 31¢ $20 220d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 28¢ $50 223d
Lakers vs. Hawks BUY Lakers 42¢ $20 227d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $100 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $70.00 · 78 history records