Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x085c…8ffd other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$59 (+3%) realized +$181 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$77
14 days−$133
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$13
sports 33% +$60
politics 6% −$74
culture 4% −$24
tech 3% +$23
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +32.0% +19.4% 50% 50% -23.0%
≤30d 16 +32.3% +19.7% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤90d 29 +13.0% +2.2% 52% 41% -1.9%
all 29 +13.0% +2.2% 52% 41% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 41% -1.9%
10% -7.5% 41% -11.3%
15% -16.5% 41% -19.9%
20% -24.7% 38% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$45 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage64d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 64¢ 12¢ $126 $23 −$104 (-82%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $26 $10 −$16 (-62%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $57 −$56 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $26 +$42 +161%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 16 $25 +$18 +72%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $22 +$86 +386%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $14 +$15 +111%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $99 +$88 +89%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $37 +$23 +61%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $55 −$27 -50%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $50 +$50 +100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $50 +$142 +285%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $50 +$23 +47%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $50 +$1 +1%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (April 19) Apr 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $154 +$14 +9%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $77 +$121 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $49 +$81 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $49 +$39 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $57 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $68 21h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 26¢ $91 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $25 3d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 58¢ $188 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $33 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $22 7d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $121 13d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $55 13d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 16d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 16d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 45d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 45d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 45d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 46d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 49d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $50 49d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $126 53d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.96 · official $149.98 (match) · 77 history records