Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x085b…8efb other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 42L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1
other 22% −$2
politics 18% +$1
culture 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 15 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 58 -0.8% -10.2% 28% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage324d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $99 +$4 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $114 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $26 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 10 $52 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $58 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $24 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $31 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $50 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $7 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $61 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $35 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.20 · official $57.20 (match) · 363 history records