Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x085b…ab9f sports 752 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$860 (-2%) realized −$860 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%309W / 443L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$494est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days−$166
14 days−$4
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,801
other 17% +$723
crypto 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +0.3% -9.3% 93% 16% -10.3%
≤30d 477 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 35% -9.3%
≤90d 752 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 34% -11.6%
all 752 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 34% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 34% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 33% -20.1%
15% -30.9% 32% -27.8%
20% -37.7% 32% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$38 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$860
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses309 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$494
Open positions0
Markets (closed)752 / 752
History coverage38d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 752 Trades
no open positions (429 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $143 +$7 +5%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $912 +$49 +5%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $108 +$7 +6%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $297 +$15 +5%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $569 +$29 +5%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $99 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $602 +$44 +7%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$8 +5%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $174 +$9 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $476 +$24 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $346 +$19 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $72 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,905 +$186 +10%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $68 +$12 +17%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $397 +$60 +15%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $48 +$3 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $499 +$26 +5%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,906 +$225 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $422 +$26 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $301 +$15 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,700 +$184 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $308 +$16 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $560 +$29 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $241 +$15 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$2 +8%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $634 +$61 +10%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $274 +$31 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$3 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $332 −$332 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,244 −$1,241 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $121 +$6 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $188 +$12 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $527 +$27 +5%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $55 +$7 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +34%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $556 +$53 +10%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $177 +$23 +13%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $44 +$3 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $33 +$2 +5%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $143 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 94¢ $108 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $174 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $569 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $912 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 95¢ $99 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 93¢ $602 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 95¢ $152 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 95¢ $297 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $13 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $476 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $346 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 95¢ $72 16h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 91¢ $1,905 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 94¢ $48 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $499 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 89¢ $1,906 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $11 21h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY No 86¢ $397 21h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 85¢ $68 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,700 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $560 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 95¢ $301 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $308 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $19 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $38 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 94¢ $241 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $422 24h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $332 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,244 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1248 history records