Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0856…8f58 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-8%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$119
other 6% −$95
sports 3% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +7.5% -2.8% 39% 37% -17.0%
≤30d 51 +7.5% -2.8% 39% 37% -17.0%
≤90d 51 +7.5% -2.8% 39% 37% -17.0%
all 51 +7.5% -2.8% 39% 37% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 37% -17.0%
10% -12.1% 35% -24.9%
15% -20.6% 33% -32.2%
20% -28.4% 33% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $115 −$109 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $60 +$101 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$31 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$141 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$126 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$51 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $39 +$139 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$28 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? AND Will Switzerland win on 202 Jun 24 $51 +$92 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$27 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$22 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$13 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$11 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $42 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records