Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0855…ae26 crypto 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$43 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate67%165W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$39
other 3% −$33
weather 2% −$82
tech 0% −$12
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.2% -18.7% 27% 20% -23.8%
≤30d 15 -10.2% -18.7% 27% 20% -23.8%
≤90d 15 -10.2% -18.7% 27% 20% -23.8%
all 248 -27.4% -34.3% 67% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 1% -9.8%
10% -40.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -46.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -51.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses165 / 83
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions39
Markets (closed)248 / 287
History coverage170d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? No 82¢ 86¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+5%)
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 65¢ 68¢ $40 $41 +$2 (+5%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? No 65¢ 76¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 61¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? No 67¢ 76¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+13%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 56¢ 62¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No 67¢ 78¢ $17 $19 +$3 (+16%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? No 70¢ 88¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No 75¢ 79¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Yes 73¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award? No 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? No 63¢ 54¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-14%)
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 74¢ 48¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 61¢ 47¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 77¢ 69¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 69¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $226 −$15 -7%
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 19 $17 +$7 +41%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies I Jun 18 $29 −$3 -9%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 18 $14 −$6 -46%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 18 $24 −$9 -37%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 18 $63 −$6 -10%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 17 $13 −$8 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +75%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$4 +5%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 03 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 02 $75 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 11m
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY No 63¢ $13 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $202 1h
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 61¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL No 48¢ $10 3h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 5h
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 65¢ $4 5h
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 65¢ $29 5h
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 65¢ $7 5h
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 7h
Will Qatar be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.08 · official $537.09 (match) · 722 history records