Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0854…3155 world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 35L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$4
sports 26% −$8
other 25% −$2
politics 14% +$3
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 17 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 29 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 0% -9.6%
all 54 -2.4% -11.7% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage331d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $116 −$5 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $87 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $247 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $90 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $54 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $61 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $187 −$7 -4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $622 +$3 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $584 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $621 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $621 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on July 21? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? Jul 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 23 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 22 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $95 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $15 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $17 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $75 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $96 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $95 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $99 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $99 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $99 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $39 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $91 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.98 · official $84.15 (match) · 211 history records