Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x0853…5acd crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$235 (-55%) realized −$209 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$235
crypto 21% +$66
world 6% −$6
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +97.1% +78.3% 50% 50% +141.8%
≤30d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 25% 25% -85.3%
≤90d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 40% -76.5%
all 5 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 40% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 40% -76.5%
10% -16.1% 20% -78.8%
15% -24.2% 20% -80.8%
20% -31.6% 20% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$82 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage38d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 80¢ $42 $82 +$40 (+96%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Royal Challengers Bangalore 5¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Rajasthan Royals 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$31 +294%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $221 −$215 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $51 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 1h
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 48¢ $25 16d
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 18d
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 19d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 11¢ $54 38d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 5¢ $51 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.34 · official $145.34 (match) · 14 history records