Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0852…655c sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,187 (+7%) realized +$1,187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day1179.0pace
Fees−$366est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$800
other 24% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +66.4% +50.6% 43% 30% -2.7%
≤30d 37 +66.4% +50.6% 43% 30% -2.7%
≤90d 37 +66.4% +50.6% 43% 30% -2.7%
all 37 +66.4% +50.6% 43% 30% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1179.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.6% 30% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here +36.2% 22% -12.0%
15% +23.0% 16% -20.5%
20% +11.0% 16% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late +122% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$24 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1,187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$366
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day1179.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Jun Hao Luo Matthew Dellavedova 91¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
ITF Kayseri: Nicolas Tepmahc vs Udit Kamboj Nicolas Tepmahc 84¢ 85¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Wessels (-1.5) vs Waldner (+1.5) Wessels 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta Thanapet Chanta 69¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,319 +$34 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,280 +$9 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $295 −$20 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $363 +$251 +69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 17 $174 −$30 -17%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $500 +$720 +144%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $717 +$52 +7%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $743 +$42 +6%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $127 −$24 -19%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $992 −$74 -7%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $625 +$141 +22%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $82 −$25 -30%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $315 −$18 -6%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $128 +$7 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $453 −$99 -22%
ITF Maanshan: Kai-I Wang vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9 −$1 -13%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $287 +$172 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $86 +$101 +117%
ITF Tokyo: Noritaka Koizumi vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 17 $11 +$2 +22%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,962 −$21 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $643 −$46 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $125 −$2 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 −$2 -7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,736 −$31 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,056 −$48 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 −$3 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $301 −$27 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $197 +$5 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $222 −$20 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $814 +$86 +11%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $158 −$17 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 25¢ $2 42m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 27¢ $10 42m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 55¢ $156 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $10 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 57¢ $13 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 56¢ $11 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 55¢ $25 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 56¢ $14 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 58¢ $4 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 55¢ $24 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 20¢ $26 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 20¢ $13 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $3 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $3 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 20¢ $3 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 13¢ $3 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $2 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 16¢ $3 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 16¢ $0 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 12¢ $2 43m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 12¢ $2 44m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 13¢ $3 44m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 9¢ $4 45m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 4¢ $5 46m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 8¢ $2 46m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 8¢ $1 46m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 8¢ $3 46m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 8¢ $0 46m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $9 46m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 13¢ $16 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.26 · official $34.12 (match) · 1192 history records