Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0849…5de7 crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate91%123W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -0.6% -10.1% 92% 14% -8.7%
≤30d 125 -0.6% -10.1% 92% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 125 -0.6% -10.1% 92% 14% -8.7%
all 135 -0.8% -10.2% 91% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 14% -8.8%
10% -18.8% 6% -17.6%
15% -26.7% 2% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses123 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage123d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $166 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $165 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $154 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $151 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $142 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $124 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $115 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $109 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $84 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $152 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $148 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $135 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $132 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $129 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $127 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $123 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $116 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $106 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $93 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $92 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $88 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $84 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $82 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $166 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $109 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $154 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $151 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $142 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $152 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $148 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $147 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $135 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $132 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $132 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $129 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $127 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $123 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $116 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $106 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $97 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $93 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records