Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0848…fab0 crypto 32 markets active 4d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-19%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -43.9% -49.2% 38% 31% -22.0%
≤30d 32 -52.6% -57.1% 31% 25% -31.9%
≤90d 32 -52.6% -57.1% 31% 25% -31.9%
all 32 -52.6% -57.1% 31% 25% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 25% -31.9%
10% -61.2% 22% -38.4%
15% -64.9% 19% -44.3%
20% -68.4% 9% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records