Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0848…aea2 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-27%) realized −$124 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -18.8% -26.5% 29% 20% -45.4%
≤30d 49 -18.8% -26.5% 29% 20% -45.4%
≤90d 49 -18.8% -26.5% 29% 20% -45.4%
all 49 -18.8% -26.5% 29% 20% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 20% -45.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 18% -50.6%
15% -39.9% 18% -55.4%
20% -45.8% 12% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 5¢ 10¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$10 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$14 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$36 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.37 · official $58.12 · 90 history records