Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0846…c530 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,043 (-2%) realized −$1,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%80W / 3L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$189
14 days−$1,357
30 days−$1,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.1% -7.7% 97% 5% -11.8%
≤30d 83 +1.7% -7.9% 96% 4% -11.9%
≤90d 83 +1.7% -7.9% 96% 4% -11.9%
all 83 +1.7% -7.9% 96% 4% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 4% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 2% -20.4%
15% -24.8% 2% -28.1%
20% -32.2% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,280) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$736 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses80 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage18d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $196 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $89 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $92 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $91 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $85 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $76 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $729 −$729 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $710 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $700 +$13 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 20? Jun 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 20? Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? Jun 21 $538 +$34 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $281 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $458 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $375 +$364 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $370 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $310 +$55 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $163 +$152 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $156 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 17? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $147 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $96 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $89 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $91 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $89 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $88 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $84 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $85 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $79 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $76 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 287 history records