Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0843…f363 weather 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%140W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$15
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 86 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 128 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 143 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×146.92 per $1 lost it wins $146.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses140 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage122d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 26 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? Jun 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $241 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $182 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $312 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $335 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $256 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $264 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $270 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $109 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $144 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $92 16h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $108 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $108 30h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $237 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $103 43h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $241 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $99 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $339 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $339 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $336 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $160 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $182 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $149 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $338 10d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $312 11d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $337 11d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.23 · official $92.23 (match) · 301 history records