Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0842…b545 politics 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$14
politics 41% −$17
sports 7% +$31
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +0.3% -9.3% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 123 +0.8% -8.8% 7% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×12.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage117d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $378 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $320 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $247 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $280 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $312 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $312 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $324 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $268 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $437 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $304 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 15m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 4h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $18 9h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 9h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 16h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 25h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 42h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 7d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $39 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $39 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 12d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 14d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.44 · official $48.44 (match) · 353 history records