Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

08 0x0840…9ab7 other 4 markets active 5h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$109 (+22%) realized +$108 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$126per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+23.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+36.4%	+23.4%	100%	100%	+22.4%
≤30d	2	+36.4%	+23.4%	100%	100%	+22.4%
≤90d	2	+36.4%	+23.4%	100%	100%	+22.4%
all	2	+36.4%	+23.4%	100%	100%	+22.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.4%	100%	+22.4%
10%	+11.6%	100%	+10.7%
15%	+0.8%	50%	+0.0%
20%	-9.1%	0%	-9.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$53 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$201

Realized+$108

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$126

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	96¢	98¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	74¢	73¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$40	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$201	+$67	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	BUY Anthropic	74¢	$101	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	84¢	$100	12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	37h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	BUY Yes	96¢	$100	37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	37h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.70 · official $200.70 (match) · 7 history records