Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x083a…19ec other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$9
other 33% +$3
politics 16% +$1
finance 7% +$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -3.3% -12.6% 21% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 14 -3.3% -12.6% 21% 0% -11.4%
all 47 -2.2% -11.5% 38% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -10.4%
10% -20.0% 2% -19.0%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage465d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $33 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $43 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $65 −$3 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $16 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $45 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $7 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $4 −$2 -58%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? Jun 07 $10 $0 +5%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $11 +$2 +15%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $85,000 on April 25? Apr 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $13 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $14 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $43 26m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $43 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $4 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $37 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $20 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records