Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0838…eb39 sports 171 markets active 5d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$268 (-3%) realized −$268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate58%99W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$1
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$436
other 11% −$16
world 0% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.8% -41.9% 17% 17% -23.6%
≤30d 162 -3.8% -12.9% 57% 34% -15.0%
≤90d 170 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 36% -14.6%
all 170 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 36% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 36% -14.6%
10% -20.2% 23% -22.8%
15% -27.9% 15% -30.2%
20% -34.9% 9% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses99 / 71
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage25d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -56%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $5 −$1 -13%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $25 −$1 -3%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 22 $2 −$1 -61%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $2 $0 +15%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $4 $0 -7%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $2 +$1 +26%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $2 +$2 +84%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $9 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $12 +$4 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$3 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $4 −$3 -79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$2 +75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $42 −$42 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $60 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $2 +$3 +164%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $20 −$8 -40%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +103%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $29 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $11 +$1 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $29 −$21 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12 +$4 +32%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $50 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $12 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $21 $0 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $20 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $3 5d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 71¢ $5 5d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 79¢ $5 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 74¢ $2 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 60¢ $2 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 95¢ $24 6d
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Chicago Sky 23¢ $1 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $25 6d
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Chicago Sky 55¢ $2 6d
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL New York Liberty 79¢ $3 7d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 66¢ $2 7d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 75¢ $3 8d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 50¢ $2 8d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 23¢ $1 8d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $2 8d
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Phoenix Mercury 84¢ $3 8d
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $2 8d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $6 8d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 79¢ $5 8d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $4 8d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 42¢ $2 8d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $2 9d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 44¢ $2 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 95¢ $46 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 87¢ $43 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $4 13d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.83 (match) · 443 history records