Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0838…63b1 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16,052 (-9%) realized −$16,051 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,492per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$885est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,334
7 days−$20,478
14 days−$16,411
30 days−$17,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$16,674
other 24% +$11,174
sports 20% −$11,028
crypto 18% −$2,705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.9% -26.6% 29% 21% -28.1%
≤30d 21 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 33% -21.8%
≤90d 29 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 34% -19.7%
all 32 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 34% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 34% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 28% -27.0%
15% -34.8% 16% -34.1%
20% -41.2% 12% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$8,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,702 vs −$2,633 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$16,051
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$885
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage102d
Avg bet$5,492
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,984 −$738 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,937 +$470 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,901 +$38 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,341 −$4,440 -70%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $9,994 −$3,654 -37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $587 −$577 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $610 −$23 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $676 −$64 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,897 −$4,221 -86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,022 −$125 -2%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,054 +$966 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $23,419 −$19,363 -83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23,955 −$553 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12,166 +$11,807 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $8,100 +$4,067 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,494 +$1,606 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $1,530 +$418 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,000 +$348 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 25 $3,110 +$1,301 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 20 $7,849 −$4,739 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 18 $3,889 −$2,360 -61%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $11,380 +$358 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $10,085 +$1,295 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $8,775 +$1,310 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 21 $1,743 −$1,659 -95%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 01 $1,122 +$621 +55%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 28 $1,795 −$673 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 23 $2,383 −$589 -25%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 18 $2,301 +$82 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Mar 17 $1,464 +$837 +57%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 16 $2,230 −$766 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $113 1m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $113 1m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $244 6m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $241 6m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $797 23m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $732 23m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $67 24m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,331 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,331 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,321 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $2,334 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,406 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,937 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,939 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,901 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 17¢ $1,901 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 54¢ $15 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $6,326 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6,341 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $54 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9,940 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $587 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $587 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $610 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $612 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $665 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $676 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.91 · official $109.91 (match) · 105 history records