Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0838…64f6 weather 731 markets active 8h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$631 (+7%) realized +$615 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%270W / 437L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$6
14 days+$20
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$487
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 40% -8.8%
≤30d 270 -7.7% -16.5% 44% 35% -6.8%
≤90d 668 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 33% -4.4%
all 707 -2.0% -11.4% 38% 33% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 33% -4.2%
10% -19.8% 30% -13.4%
15% -27.6% 28% -21.7%
20% -34.7% 27% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$615
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses270 / 437
Open positions24
Markets (closed)707 / 731
History coverage104d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 74¢ 83¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 56¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 70¢ 60¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Yes 42¢ 39¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 37¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 266 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$9 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$19 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$8 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$5 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $122 −$21 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$5 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $81 −$39 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +248%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$6 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $36 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $108 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 11¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 14¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 59¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $40 35h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $100 35h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $37 35h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $25 35h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $36 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.36 · official $239.36 (match) · 1666 history records