Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
08 0x0836…e39f crypto 28 markets active 19h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$9,372 (+104%) realized +$9,372 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$746
14 days+$746
30 days+$899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$237
world 45% +$9,029
economics 4% −$38
other 1% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +76.8% +60.0% 100% 100% +79.1%
≤30d 3 +55.6% +40.8% 100% 100% +32.4%
≤90d 28 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 46% +84.2%
all 28 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 46% +84.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 46% +84.2%
10% -15.1% 25% +66.6%
15% -23.3% 21% +50.5%
20% -30.8% 18% +35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$693 vs −$31 · ×22.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.26 per $1 lost it wins $22.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,372
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage82d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$40 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $680 +$705 +104%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $1,181 +$154 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 08 $270 +$41 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 29 $1,587 +$321 +20%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 21 $350 −$38 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $3,400 +$8,324 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 27 $93 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 27 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 27 $173 −$28 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 27 $128 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 27 $71 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 27 $139 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 27 $12 +$16 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 27 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 27 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 27 $78 −$48 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 27 $134 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 26 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 26 $98 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 26 $27 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 26 $43 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 26 $54 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 26 $75 +$59 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 26 $200 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $60 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $80 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $80 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $160 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $125 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL No 50¢ $960 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 24¢ $261 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 52¢ $513 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL No 55¢ $375 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY No 56¢ $407 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY Yes 86¢ $270 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? BUY No 88¢ $44 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? BUY No 88¢ $337 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,417 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,206 56d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? SELL No 54¢ $312 56d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY No 61¢ $350 60d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $3,000 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $400 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 682 history records