Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0834…485c world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
sports 30% +$4
other 18% −$13
politics 9% −$2
finance 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 29 +12.1% +1.5% 34% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 43 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 5% -9.5%
all 53 +2.1% -7.6% 34% 13% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 13% -9.9%
10% -16.5% 11% -18.5%
15% -24.5% 9% -26.4%
20% -31.9% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage525d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 48¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $62 −$3 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $43 −$3 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $41 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $46 +$7 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $45 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $33 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $20 −$3 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $112 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $100 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $301 +$1 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $293 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $267 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the candidate from the Rebuilding Korea Party win the South Korea Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Lamar vs. Texas A&M Commerce Mar 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 23 $1 $0 -24%
Quinnipiac vs. Sacred Heart Feb 15 $4 +$6 +138%
Will the match between Fenerbahce and Anderlecht end in a draw? Feb 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Boston Univ. vs. Bucknell Feb 13 $4 +$2 +47%
Jenkins vs. Santos Feb 13 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 10 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $40 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $40 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $37 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.16 · official $36.38 (match) · 195 history records