Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

08 0x0834…b743 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,562 (+7%) realized +$1,756 · open −$194

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%8W / 16L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$711per market

Trades / day11.9pace

Fees−$283est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$3,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-24.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-16.4%	-24.3%	33%	33%	-2.0%
≤30d	24	-16.4%	-24.3%	33%	33%	-2.0%
≤90d	24	-16.4%	-24.3%	33%	33%	-2.0%
all	24	-16.4%	-24.3%	33%	33%	-2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.9 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-24.3%	33%	-2.0%
10% ← realistic here	-31.6%	33%	-11.3%
15%	-38.2%	33%	-19.9%
20%	-44.3%	29%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$837) neutral

Persistence

early -19% → late -14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$916 vs −$387 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$3,002

Realized+$1,756

Unrealized−$194

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses8 / 16

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$283

Open positions5

Markets (closed)24 / 30

History coverage6d

Avg bet$711

Trades / day11.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5)	Travaglia	66¢	64¢	$1,000	$970	−$30 (-3%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	Stefano Travaglia	44¢	44¢	$721	$714	−$8 (-1%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo	Xi Luo	47¢	41¢	$797	$700	−$97 (-12%)
Set Handicap: Zelinskaya (-1.5) vs Luo (+1.5)	Luo	66¢	62¢	$385	$358	−$26 (-7%)
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva	Anja Stankovic	21¢	18¢	$293	$259	−$34 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh	Jun 17	$606	−$332	-55%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$5,122	−$34	-1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$392	+$226	+58%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	Jun 17	$190	−$186	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$69	−$68	-98%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi	Jun 17	$200	−$196	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$22	−$22	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$423	−$415	-98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino	Jun 16	$621	+$852	+137%
Jakub Mensik vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$197	+$387	+197%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire	Jun 16	$1,263	+$1,777	+141%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon	Jun 16	$987	−$969	-98%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair	Jun 16	$959	+$1,350	+141%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu	Jun 16	$312	−$304	-98%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka	Jun 16	$713	+$268	+38%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva	Jun 16	$697	−$687	-98%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi	Jun 16	$512	−$500	-98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien	Jun 16	$508	−$499	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$849	−$837	-99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$262	−$257	-98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings	Jun 16	$694	−$588	-85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$297	−$292	-98%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 13	$371	+$1,093	+295%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,341	+$1,372	+102%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Set Handicap: Zelinskaya (-1.5) vs Luo (+1.5)	BUY Luo	66¢	$389	19m
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo	BUY Xi Luo	47¢	$810	20m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	SELL Stefano Travaglia	43¢	$1	25m
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva	BUY Anja Stankovic	22¢	$44	54m
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva	BUY Anja Stankovic	21¢	$51	54m
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva	BUY Anja Stankovic	21¢	$205	55m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	BUY Stefano Travaglia	44¢	$2	1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	BUY Stefano Travaglia	44¢	$733	1h
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Travaglia (+1.5)	BUY Travaglia	66¢	$1,010	1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh	SELL Ye Chen	21¢	$53	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$75	1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh	SELL Ye Chen	33¢	$203	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	49¢	$618	1h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh	BUY Ye Chen	26¢	$200	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$995	2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	30¢	$2	3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	30¢	$391	3h
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh	BUY Ye Chen	35¢	$406	3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Ekaterina Maklakova	21¢	$65	3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Ekaterina Maklakova	30¢	$28	3h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Ekaterina Maklakova	31¢	$97	4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$988	4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$69	4h
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi	BUY Riyo Yoshida	11¢	$28	5h
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi	BUY Riyo Yoshida	29¢	$173	5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	12¢	$22	7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	33¢	$423	7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1,043	17h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino	SELL Adrian Mannarino	99¢	$1,097	17h
Jakub Mensik vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5	SELL Over 2.5	100¢	$584	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,001.74 · official $3,001.74 (match) · 81 history records