Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0832…4146 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$157 (+10%) realized +$274 · open −$117
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day101.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$213
sports 30% +$265
world 2% −$8
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +75.9% +59.2% 26% 26% +7.6%
≤30d 34 +75.9% +59.2% 26% 26% +7.6%
≤90d 34 +75.9% +59.2% 26% 26% +7.6%
all 34 +75.9% +59.2% 26% 26% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.2% 26% +7.6%
10% ← realistic here +43.9% 26% -2.7%
15% +30.0% 26% -12.1%
20% +17.3% 26% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +132% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$12 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$956
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions68
Markets (closed)34 / 102
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day101.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) Iraq $20 $27 +$7 (+34%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $20 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $18 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +246%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$15 -59%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$195 +3782%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$148 +1442%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 31m
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 32m
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 32m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 32m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 32m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 32m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $956.22 · official $956.35 (match) · 166 history records