Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
08 0x082c…9b4a other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$7
crypto 17% −$5
economics 15% −$1
world 8% −$1
tech 7% −$1
sports 7% −$2
politics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$835) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage92d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Jun 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 27 $1,125 $0 +0%
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 26 $1,127 −$4 -0%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $1,156 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $838 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on May 12 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $826 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? May 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $829 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 11 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $796 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 01 $126 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March? Mar 27 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $854 2h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $220 2h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 3h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 21h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,103 21h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 22h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 22h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $217 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 22h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $748 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 23h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $313 23h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,063 23h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 44d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 45d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $836 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records