Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x082a…d0b0 world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 44L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$49
world 28% −$14
politics 15% +$3
sports 13% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 21 -2.2% -11.5% 24% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 36 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 64 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 44
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage310d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $282 −$6 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $173 +$3 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $81 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $154 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $180 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $196 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $104 −$6 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 28 $3 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $81 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $98 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $220 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $36 +$3 +8%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $12 −$5 -42%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $653 +$4 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $1,081 +$42 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $530 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $385 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $617 +$1 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $54 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $80 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $80 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $83 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 22h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $31 38h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $24 42h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $35 46h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $91 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $91 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $92 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $47 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $48 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $68 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 86¢ $81 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $54 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $24 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $81 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $63 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $54 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.96 · official $80.37 (match) · 243 history records