Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0828…5cfe sports 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,217 (-15%) realized −$4,208 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%140W / 181L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$348est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$772
7 days−$772
14 days−$772
30 days−$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$4,734
other 15% +$1,948
crypto 1% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +19.7% +8.3% 47% 47% -23.1%
≤30d 40 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 50% -22.8%
≤90d 321 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 38% -19.2%
all 321 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 38% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 38% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 31% -26.9%
15% -35.4% 23% -34.0%
20% -41.7% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$49 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$769
Realized−$4,208
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses140 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions4
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 94¢ 100¢ $337 $356 +$19 (+6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 32¢ $342 $316 −$25 (-7%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 29¢ 28¢ $87 $84 −$3 (-3%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 82¢ 80¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $240 −$183 -76%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $77 +$42 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $540 +$288 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $361 −$361 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$18 -56%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $89 +$66 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $225 −$201 -89%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $9 +$11 +121%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $85 +$14 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $53 +$25 +47%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $2 +$10 +642%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $83 −$79 -95%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Jun 20 $3,359 −$382 -11%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $6 −$3 -58%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky May 28 $6 −$5 -94%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 +$6 +213%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 27 $2 +$1 +74%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $10 +$4 +37%
PortlandFire vs. New York Liberty May 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $6 +$18 +276%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 26 $4 +$7 +163%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $5 −$2 -41%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $10 −$2 -25%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 May 25 $7 +$1 +20%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $4 +$1 +40%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $23 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 24 $3 +$2 +56%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $14 +$6 +42%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Canucks vs. Ducks Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division R Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $9 +$17 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 82¢ $12 26m
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 56¢ $13 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 56¢ $24 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 57¢ $19 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 55¢ $15 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 56¢ $9 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 55¢ $8 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 56¢ $23 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 56¢ $31 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 62¢ $66 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 58¢ $9 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 29¢ $2 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 47¢ $33 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 45¢ $12 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 46¢ $3 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 48¢ $4 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 45¢ $1 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 45¢ $1 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 45¢ $5 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 52¢ $5 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 58¢ $32 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 25¢ $79 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 20¢ $4 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 20¢ $27 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 20¢ $1 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 24¢ $3 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 24¢ $1 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 24¢ $8 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL No 25¢ $5 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 29¢ $42 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $768.86 · official $758.41 · 3500 history records