Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x0827…cdcf
politics · 81 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Open positions30
Markets (closed)51 / 81
History coverage226d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 30 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? No 22¢ 46¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+110%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? Yes 61¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 71¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 59¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? No 70¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? No 66¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? No 69¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? No 38¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 33¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 48¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? No 65¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? No 58¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3 $0 -15%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -79%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -51%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +227%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -57%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$4 -26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$11 +1106%
Will Trump say "Cognitive Test" in June? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by November 30? May 31 $1 +$1 +54%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel strike on Yemen by November 30? May 31 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? May 31 $2 $0 +16%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? May 31 $1 +$7 +669%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? May 31 $2 +$8 +324%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10? Nov 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 09 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $1 +$1 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 05 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana all time high before 2026? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1? Nov 04 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 04 $10 +$8 +79%
Aster all time high by December 31? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Oct 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Steroid" in November? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1? Oct 31 $2 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Oct 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1? Oct 31 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% −$21
crypto 25% −$13
other 19% −$2
world 9% +$5
tech 4% +$4
weather 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $1 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 31h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 32h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 67¢ $1 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $2 34h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $2 34h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $2 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY No 66¢ $1 2d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 81¢ $2 3d
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4d
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 66¢ $1 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $0 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 5d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY No 38¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +60.9% +45.6% 43% 29% -16.6%
≤30d 30 +33.2% +20.5% 40% 33% -16.9%
≤90d 30 +33.2% +20.5% 40% 33% -16.9%
all 51 -4.6% -13.7% 33% 29% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -28.1%
10% -21.9% 25% -35.0%
15% -29.5% 25% -41.3%
20% -36.4% 18% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $43.64 (match) · 129 history records