Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
08 0x0825…0b5d sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-0%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate78%81W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$4
economics 47% −$69
politics 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$6
other 1% −$8
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 104 +0.4% -9.2% 78% 27% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 27% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 23% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 16% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 13% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses81 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage639d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $316 in February? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in February? Mar 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $298 in February? Mar 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $368 in January? Feb 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Feb 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple reach $340 in January? Feb 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $608 in January? Feb 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 22 $29 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Dec 13 $15 +$4 +25%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 13 $15 +$7 +49%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5 Dec 13 $15 +$11 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Dec 13 $15 +$16 +104%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Dec 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Dec 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Dec 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-6.5) Dec 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5 Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Dec 02 $13 +$3 +22%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Dec 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Dec 02 $15 +$4 +24%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 Dec 02 $10 +$9 +89%
Kings vs. Jazz Dec 02 $10 +$9 +92%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5 Dec 02 $10 +$9 +92%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Nov 28 $10 +$7 +67%
Wizards vs. Celtics Nov 28 $15 +$3 +18%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Nov 28 $15 +$5 +33%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Nov 28 $10 +$10 +100%
Spread: Rockets (-6.5) Nov 28 $13 +$9 +70%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Nov 28 $15 +$10 +67%
Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 Nov 28 $15 +$11 +72%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5 Nov 28 $15 +$13 +85%
Will the Bank of Brazil raise the Selic rate after November 2025 meeti Nov 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Vít Rakušan be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic afte Nov 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 22 $118 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $24,417 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Aug 31 $1,085 −$69 -6%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole? Aug 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Union for National Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Bu Jul 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? May 04 $26,300 −$26 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $103 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 26d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $103 79d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $103 88d
Will Netflix reach $298 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 119d
Will Apple reach $316 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 119d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 119d
Will Microsoft reach $608 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 151d
Will Netflix reach $368 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 151d
Will Apple reach $340 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 151d
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $12 151d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 151d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 151d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $15 201d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 201d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $15 201d
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 201d
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) BUY Timberwolves 57¢ $15 201d
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans BUY Timberwolves 80¢ $15 201d
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 205d
Spread: Clippers (-6.5) BUY Clippers 52¢ $14 205d
Grizzlies vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 70¢ $14 205d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 82¢ $13 205d
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 BUY Under 59¢ $13 205d
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) BUY Lakers 81¢ $15 205d
Kings vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 52¢ $10 205d
Spread: Kings (-1.5) BUY Jazz 56¢ $10 205d
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 205d
Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 205d
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) BUY Nuggets 56¢ $15 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.95 · official $102.95 (match) · 225 history records