Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x0821…27d1 world 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$5
other 17% $0
politics 15% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
economics 7% $0
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 7 +1.1% -8.6% 43% 0% -8.1%
all 25 +3.8% -6.1% 48% 4% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 4% -8.4%
10% -15.1% 4% -17.2%
15% -23.3% 4% -25.2%
20% -30.8% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.14 per $1 lost it wins $6.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage375d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $87 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 +$4 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 10 $21 $0 +1%
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 02 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 02 $2 +$2 +89%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23? Jun 25 $21 $0 +2%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 22 $20 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $44 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $6 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $44 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $40 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $36 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? SELL Yes $0 351d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? SELL Yes $1 351d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? SELL Yes $0 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.38 · official $32.02 (match) · 111 history records