trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 43% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 43% | 0% | -8.1% |
| all | 25 | +3.8% | -6.1% | 48% | 4% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.1% | 4% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -15.1% | 4% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -23.3% | 4% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -30.8% | 4% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 16 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $87 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $40 | +$4 | +10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $36 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? | Aug 10 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025? | Jul 07 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? | Jul 07 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? | Jul 07 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jul 06 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 06 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 06 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jul 02 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 02 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Jul 02 | $22 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? | Jul 02 | $2 | +$2 | +89% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jul 02 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Jul 01 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23? | Jun 25 | $21 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 23 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jun 22 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 14 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 14 | $20 | $0 | +0% |