Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x081e…f76e sports 886 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100,370 (-28%) realized −$99,982 · open −$388
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%441W / 663L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day77.2pace
Fees−$5,159est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$41,681
crypto 6% +$6,290
other 1% −$570
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 486 -62.8% -66.4% 19% 19% -88.0%
≤30d 875 -24.6% -31.7% 39% 38% -69.2%
≤90d 1104 -20.3% -27.9% 40% 39% -66.7%
all 1104 -20.3% -27.9% 40% 39% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 39% -66.7%
10% -34.8% 38% -69.9%
15% ← realistic here -41.1% 38% -72.8%
20% -46.9% 34% -75.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$811) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$328 vs −$1,100 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized−$99,982
Unrealized−$388
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses441 / 663
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5,159
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1104 / 886
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$410
Trades / day77.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 53¢ 62¢ $429 $506 +$77 (+18%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens 48¢ 50¢ $145 $150 +$5 (+3%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Adelaide International, Qualification: Jesper de Jong vs Thiago Agusti Jun 17 $493 −$493 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 17 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 17 $1,835 −$1,835 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Terra Wortmann: Medvedev vs. Zverev Jun 17 $728 −$728 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 17 $795 −$795 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 17 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 17 $43,659 −$43,659 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $732 −$732 -100%
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? Jun 17 $432 −$432 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 17 $12,000 −$12,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Jun 17 $491 −$491 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: Nemiga vs. HEROIC Jun 17 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5,880 −$5,880 -100%
BLAST Bounty: MOUZ vs. Spirit Jun 17 $266 −$266 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 17 $1,133 −$1,133 -100%
Miami Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Belinda Bencic Jun 17 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yu Jun 17 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 17 $6,469 −$6,469 -100%
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) Jun 17 $902 −$902 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Jun 17 $806 −$806 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $906 −$906 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Jun 17 $1,424 −$1,390 -98%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 17 $533 −$533 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elina Svitolina vs Diana Shnaider Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Guangzhou Open: Lulu Sun vs Ann Li Jun 17 $1,169 −$1,169 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $401 −$401 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 17 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 17 $2,280 −$2,280 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 17 $300 −$756 -252%
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Eliot Spizzirri Jun 17 $503 −$503 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Wimbledon: Cobolli vs. Mensik Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Top Esports Jun 17 $366 −$366 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,877 −$2,877 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $1,519 −$1,519 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 17 $16,649 −$16,649 -100%
Will the USA Stars team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Jun 17 $2,481 −$2,481 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 17 $470 −$470 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3) Jun 17 $3,410 −$3,410 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 48¢ $147 6m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $61 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $12 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $193 40m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 53¢ $435 51m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 89¢ $444 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $245 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $125 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $520 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $42 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $41 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.76 · official $655.76 (match) · 3500 history records