Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x081c…7008 politics 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$18
other 2% −$2
sports 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -5.4% -14.4% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage688d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $53 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Election certified on January 6? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Palin be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Louisville win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 15h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $52 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 19d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $52 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 26d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $52 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $52 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $52 36d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $53 61d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $53 61d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 70d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 71d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 83d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 83d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 89d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 89d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $53 91d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $53 92d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $53 95d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $53 96d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 99d
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records