Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x081b…1c6a sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,226 (+22%) realized +$5,526 · open −$300
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%35W / 43L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$738
7 days+$1,502
14 days+$1,973
30 days+$5,745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$4,266
other 12% +$172
crypto 0% −$32
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +14.1% +3.2% 89% 67% +4.9%
≤30d 51 -11.5% -20.0% 49% 43% +15.8%
≤90d 78 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 40% +9.3%
all 78 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 40% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 40% +9.3%
10% -30.5% 33% -1.1%
15% -37.2% 29% -10.7%
20% -43.4% 26% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$84 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$5,526
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses35 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage47d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 54¢ $810 $510 −$300 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $929 +$285 +31%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,360 +$283 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $920 +$170 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $293 +$11 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $151 +$98 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $855 +$170 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $704 +$499 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,996 +$187 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $124 −$122 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$97 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,566 +$339 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,517 +$146 +10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $59 −$57 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $26 +$7 +29%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $279 +$196 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,524 +$1,668 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $27 −$27 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $34 −$23 -70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $10 −$2 -23%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $25 $0 -2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $148 +$29 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $243 +$108 +44%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $146 −$145 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5) Jun 03 $102 +$136 +134%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $277 −$274 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $122 −$120 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 29 $729 +$491 +67%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 May 28 $203 +$229 +112%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5) May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 28 $28 +$12 +44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $65 +$44 +67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 2.5 May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $635 +$867 +137%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 May 26 $188 +$101 +54%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5) May 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $333 +$913 +274%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 May 24 $493 +$779 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $814 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $929 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $2,360 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $920 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $204 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $293 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $151 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $7 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $8 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $673 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $855 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $153 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 56¢ $124 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $12 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2,831 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2,566 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,517 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $59 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 82¢ $13 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 71¢ $9 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 71¢ $2 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline SELL Knicks 36¢ $2 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 12d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $140 13d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $140 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.82 · official $509.82 (match) · 169 history records