Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x081a…66d0
other · 674 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$915 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$611 · open −$246
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$271
Realized−$611
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses36 / 600
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions58
Markets (closed)636 / 674
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day460.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 58 History 636 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$586
14 days−$611
30 days−$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 82¢ 84¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes 57¢ 44¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? No 94¢ 61¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-36%)
Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026? No 94¢ 56¢ $28 $17 −$12 (-41%)
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Will Ritual launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 31¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-48%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-33%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 36¢ 24¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-35%)
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-47%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? No 71¢ 35¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-51%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 39¢ 23¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? No 15¢ 12¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Hyperbeat launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-53%)
Will Nico Hoerner win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-62%)
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-78%)
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? No 17¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 13 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? Jun 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 20 Jun 13 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con Jun 13 $8 −$1 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $82 −$3 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $92 −$5 -5%
Will Oscar Bobb score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $63 −$3 -5%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 13 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $120 −$12 -10%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -5%
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season? Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Will there be 25+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market clos Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 13 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Jack Cruickshanks win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-ele Jun 13 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -5%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $121 −$10 -8%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $50 −$7 -13%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -16%
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$406
politics 24% −$196
world 20% −$107
sports 8% −$59
tech 4% −$49
finance 4% −$22
economics 1% −$19
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 9¢ $0 1m
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 82¢ $42 7m
Will Cloud9 win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 15m
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $18 18m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 24m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 25m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 27m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 31m
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 52m
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL No 19¢ $4 1h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July SELL No 92¢ $47 1h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 20¢ $4 1h
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? BUY No 17¢ $5 1h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $19 1h
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 20 SELL Yes 31¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 609 -5.1% -14.1% 5% 3% -14.0%
≤30d 636 -5.6% -14.6% 6% 3% -14.1%
≤90d 636 -5.6% -14.6% 6% 3% -14.1%
all 636 -5.6% -14.6% 6% 3% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover460.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 3% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 2% -22.3%
15% -30.2% 1% -29.8%
20% -37.0% 1% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.90 · official $270.48 (match) · 3500 history records