Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0817…1eb1 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$352 (+16%) realized +$354 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$243
crypto 21% +$74
other 14% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 54% +4.6%
≤30d 65 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 54% +4.6%
≤90d 65 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 54% +4.6%
all 65 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 54% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 54% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 54% -5.4%
15% -21.3% 49% -14.5%
20% -29.0% 34% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$354
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage5d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 50¢ $110 $101 −$9 (-8%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 60¢ $53 $60 +$8 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 −$45 -89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $91 −$62 -68%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$29 -69%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $59 +$27 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $115 +$82 +71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $104 +$55 +53%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $206 +$69 +34%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$42 -83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$34 -62%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $194 +$106 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$77 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $65 −$32 -49%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$95 -94%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$74 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$22 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $54 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $29 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 16¢ $23 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 17¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $87 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $198 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $115 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $158 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $275 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 75¢ $60 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 73¢ $146 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $104 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $300 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $194 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $277 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $201 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.50 · official $166.50 · 146 history records