Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0815…6e09 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-6%) realized +$9 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day66.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$146
crypto 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% -13.5%
≤30d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% -13.5%
≤90d 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% -13.5%
all 16 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 56% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 50% -21.8%
15% -23.1% 44% -29.3%
20% -30.6% 38% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) TEAM VISION 69¢ 68¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 72¢ 72¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 34¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 30¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $122 −$80 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$16 +52%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $107 −$45 -42%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $176 −$100 -57%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $88 +$84 +95%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$38 +123%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +69%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $36 −$9 -25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$15 +73%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $91 +$20 +22%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $131 +$26 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 44¢ $17 3m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $73 5m
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 79¢ $79 8m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 27¢ $40 43m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 12¢ $9 50m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 29¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 52¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 23¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 29¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 43¢ $24 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $26 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 6¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 67¢ $36 4h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 74¢ $40 4h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 2¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 6¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 8¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 16h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $44 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $6 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $54 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $38 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $17 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.96 · official $165.96 (match) · 82 history records