Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x080c…f7f7 world 25 markets active 2d ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% $0
world 40% +$2
politics 13% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 8% -9.1%
all 25 -7.7% -16.5% 32% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 4% -9.4%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage412d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $29 +$5 +16%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Livre win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 30 $124 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 30 $15 $0 -1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? Apr 29 $135 +$1 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will DOGE audit the IRS before May? Apr 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 46h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $17 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $32 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $32 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $32 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $32 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records