Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x080c…0e1d sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$3
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$7
other 37% −$19
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.0% -37.6% 40% 30% -10.8%
≤30d 16 -42.1% -47.6% 31% 25% -15.2%
≤90d 16 -42.1% -47.6% 31% 25% -15.2%
all 16 -42.1% -47.6% 31% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 25% -15.2%
10% -52.6% 6% -23.3%
15% -57.2% 6% -30.7%
20% -61.4% 6% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage12d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $67 +$3 +5%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $43 +$24 +56%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $7 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $46 +$8 +17%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 22 $16 −$15 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 22 $6 +$1 +18%
Nakashima vs. Draper: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $9 $0 -3%
Joint vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $6 $0 -3%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Katie Volynets vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$1 -17%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Goiás EC to win the second half? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $67 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $67 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $43 12h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $14 37h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 37¢ $7 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $46 3d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $11 4d
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Nakashima vs. Draper: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lorenzo Giustino vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Gauthier Onclin 84¢ $6 4d
Joint vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 5d
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY No 88¢ $2 6d
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY No 88¢ $1 6d
Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots BUY No 94¢ $1 9d
Katie Volynets vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 60¢ $8 9d
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 62¢ $4 11d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 11d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 11d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 12d
Goiás EC to win the second half? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records