Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x080c…87fd other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,830 (+1%) realized +$1,825 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,704per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$33
14 days−$187
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$2,004
politics 41% −$117
culture 3% −$9
world 2% −$5
sports 2% −$92
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 49 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 118 -1.4% -10.8% 7% 6% -8.7%
all 118 -1.4% -10.8% 7% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -8.7%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.5%
15% -27.1% 5% -25.4%
20% -34.3% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,693) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$5 · ×54.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2,037
Realized+$1,825
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,704
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,526 $1,525 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $442 $443 +$1 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 57¢ 62¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,523 −$5 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,848 −$5 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $280 +$1 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,474 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $3,043 −$5 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,426 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,756 −$7 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $2,853 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $86 +$38 +44%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,627 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,560 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,121 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,873 −$7 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $3,250 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,979 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,784 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,009 −$5 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,468 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,192 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $46 +$50 +109%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $69 +$124 +180%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $2,923 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $3,264 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,527 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,268 17h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,270 19h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 20h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,472 22h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,474 26h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,325 43h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,327 45h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,511 47h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,513 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,164 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,012 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,527 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $280 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,529 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,425 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,426 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,620 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,622 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,435 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,438 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,451 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,453 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,453 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,456 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,567 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,570 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,037.31 · official $2,037.31 (match) · 375 history records