Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
08 0x080a…d43c other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$57 (+4%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
other 33% +$53
politics 11% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +31.9% +19.3% 20% 20% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +30.2% +17.8% 27% 27% -9.0%
all 38 +12.0% +1.3% 21% 13% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 13% -5.2%
10% -8.4% 8% -14.3%
15% -17.2% 5% -22.6%
20% -25.3% 5% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.07 per $1 lost it wins $8.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage307d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $83 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $91 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $172 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $95 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$3 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $57 +$7 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $4 $0 +14%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $44 +$54 +123%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $25 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $17 −$2 -13%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $3 $0 -13%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $83 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $9 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $73 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $35 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $26 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $30 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $83 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $8 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $56 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $91 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $85 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $98 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $13 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $43 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $92 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $77 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $68 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records