Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0805…0bb1 world 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$834 (+18%) realized +$826 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 52L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days+$115
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$970
crypto 4% −$66
other 2% −$3
sports 1% +$21
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 67% +25.8%
≤90d 95 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 35% +11.3%
all 109 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 35% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 35% +9.3%
10% -22.6% 23% -1.1%
15% -30.1% 19% -10.7%
20% -37.0% 15% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$826
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage110d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +122%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $386 +$128 +33%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $250 +$140 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 08 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 08 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 08 $1 +$2 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 03 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 01 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 01 $1 $0 -4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 28 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? BUY Yes 75¢ $200 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? BUY Yes 76¢ $186 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 28d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $273 28d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $56 29d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $62 29d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? BUY No 70¢ $100 35d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 36d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 43d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $42 44d
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $8 44d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.97 · official $207.97 (match) · 367 history records